中信证券：继续看好未来两年航司业绩释放

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the capacity release of the civil aviation fleet is constrained by factors such as low introduction of new aircraft, engine maintenance, and spare parts availability, with the capacity utilization rate nearing its limit during peak season [1] Group 1: Capacity and Demand - The recent recovery in business and leisure travel demand is noted, with expectations for further policy stimulation for private travel by 2026 [1] - The capacity utilization rate of airlines is approaching its maximum limit, indicating a potential strain on operational efficiency [1] Group 2: Revenue and Profitability - In the third quarter, major airlines' revenue per passenger kilometer on international routes has matched that of domestic routes, marking a shift from the weak performance of international routes since 2015 [1] - The strategy of "flying further, flying internationally, and flying to emerging markets" is effectively reducing unit fuel costs against a backdrop of low oil prices and a weak recovery in domestic demand [1] - Major airlines are expected to achieve their first profit since the pandemic in 2025, marking the beginning of a profit release cycle, with positive performance anticipated over the next two years [1]