黄金还能涨30%？

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 rising by 0.11% to 6857.12 points, the Nasdaq increasing by 0.22% to 23505.14 points, and the Dow Jones decreasing by 0.07% to 47850.94 points [1][3] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have intensified, with the probability of a cut next week reaching 87% according to the CME FedWatch Tool [1][5] Gold Market Outlook - Gold has performed exceptionally well in 2025, with a cumulative increase of approximately 60% year-to-date, driven by geopolitical and economic uncertainties, a weaker dollar, and strong price momentum [7] - The World Gold Council (WGC) released a report outlining potential scenarios for gold prices in 2026, indicating that in a "vicious cycle" scenario, gold prices could rise by 15% to 30% due to falling U.S. Treasury yields, escalating geopolitical tensions, and heightened risk aversion [8][10] - In a "re-inflation return" scenario, if U.S. economic growth exceeds expectations due to fiscal stimulus, gold prices may face a decline of 5% to 20% as rising yields and a stronger dollar increase the opportunity cost of holding gold [10] Investment Demand - Investment demand, particularly through gold ETFs, is expected to continue playing a crucial role in driving gold prices, offsetting weak demand from the jewelry and technology sectors [9] - Year-to-date, global gold ETFs have attracted $77 billion in inflows, with an increase of over 700 tons, indicating significant growth potential compared to previous bull market cycles [9] Central Bank Demand - Central bank demand remains a significant driver of gold price trends, with strong purchasing activity expected to continue [10]