智通财经网·2025-12-05 00:49Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities highlights that the capacity release of the civil aviation fleet is constrained by factors such as low introduction of new aircraft, engine maintenance, and supply chain issues, with expectations for a recovery in business travel demand and a potential policy boost for private travel by 2026 [1] Group 1: Capacity and Demand Dynamics - The capacity utilization rate of the fleet is nearing its limit during peak seasons, with a recent recovery in business travel demand [1] - Major airlines are expected to achieve their first profit turnaround post-pandemic in 2025, marking the beginning of a profit release cycle [1] - Domestic airlines are shifting capacity towards international long-haul routes, which is expected to enhance aircraft utilization and reduce unit costs [2][4] Group 2: Cost Management and Profitability - The easing of fuel cost pressures is crucial for profit release, with differences in unit fuel costs driven by engine maintenance and operational strategies [2] - Airlines are employing refined management techniques to optimize financial expenses, which is beginning to show positive effects [2] - The high passenger load factors during the off-peak season, ranging from 85.3% to 93.2%, indicate a strong demand environment [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The recovery in aviation demand is expected to align with the positive turning point of the Producer Price Index (PPI), suggesting a broader economic stabilization [3] - The anticipated narrowing of PPI declines and a return to positive Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth in late 2025 may catalyze a faster recovery in travel demand [3] - The supply-demand growth rate difference for RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) and ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) is projected to turn positive and continue to expand over the next two years [4] Group 4: Supply Constraints and Fleet Growth - The introduction of new aircraft is expected to be limited, with the nominal capacity compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for listed airlines projected at around 4.6% from 2024 to 2027 [5] - Various operational conditions suggest that the actual fleet size CAGR could range from 2.1% to 3.6% depending on delivery scenarios [6] - The high costs of leased aircraft and the need to replace older planes are further constraining effective capacity growth [6] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The recovery in business travel demand is likely to resonate with a mild appreciation of the currency, leading to a significant reduction in airline losses by Q4 2025 [7] - Airlines are focusing on enhancing international long-haul capacity to improve aircraft utilization and profitability [7] - The positive turning point of the PPI indicates a favorable outlook for the aviation sector, presenting new investment opportunities [7]