供需基本面边际改善 氯化铵市场迎来阶段性回暖

Core Viewpoint - The ammonium chloride market shows signs of stabilization after experiencing a downturn, with prices expected to recover due to increased demand from downstream compound fertilizer companies and reduced production from chlor-alkali enterprises [1][2]. Group 1: Market Price Trends - As of the end of October, the mainstream transaction price of ammonium chloride in China was between 360 to 390 yuan per ton, reflecting a cumulative decline of approximately 15% over two months, marking a new low for the year [1]. - The price drop has highlighted the cost-effectiveness of ammonium chloride, which has a higher nitrogen content compared to ammonium sulfate and is priced at only one-third of ammonium sulfate, making it attractive to compound fertilizer companies [1]. Group 2: Downstream Demand - In November, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate reached 33.26%, an increase of 5.08% month-on-month, indicating a rise in production activity [2]. - Compound fertilizers account for 87% of ammonium chloride consumption, and the increase in production rates is expected to lead to higher procurement of ammonium chloride, with some companies raising prices by 30 to 50 yuan [2]. Group 3: Production Adjustments - Major chlor-alkali enterprises, which produce over 85% of ammonium chloride as a byproduct, have reduced production due to maintenance and market conditions, resulting in a month-on-month decrease in output of 16.68 million tons in November [3]. - The overall supply of ammonium chloride may continue to decline due to ongoing production adjustments and the inability of some previously halted facilities to resume operations [3]. Group 4: Winter Stockpiling - The recent increase in prices of phosphate and potassium fertilizers has led compound fertilizer companies to focus on depleting existing inventories, while low-priced ammonium chloride is favored for replenishing stocks due to lower storage risks [4]. - The initiation of winter stockpiling has allowed ammonium chloride companies to successfully implement price increases, with heightened participation from traders in the market [4]. - The overall improvement in supply-demand fundamentals is expected to support a phase of price recovery in the ammonium chloride market [4].