不锈钢：盘面震荡小幅上涨 基本面施压驱动有限

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing price stability amid a backdrop of reduced production and inventory challenges, with expectations of limited demand in the near term [1][2][3] Pricing - As of December 4, the price of Wuxi Hongwang 304 cold-rolled stainless steel is 12,700 yuan/ton, and the price in Foshan is 12,650 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [1] - The basis has increased by 40 yuan/ton to 445 yuan/ton [1] Raw Materials - The nickel market remains stable, with Philippine mines primarily fulfilling prior orders, while new tenders have not yet commenced in northern mines [1][3] - In Indonesia, the domestic benchmark price has decreased by 0.52-0.91 USD per wet ton, with mainstream domestic premiums maintaining at +26 [1][3] - Nickel-iron prices continue to decline, with major steel mills' new tenders dropping to a low of 880 yuan/nickel (tax included) [1][3] Production and Supply - In November, the crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is estimated at 3.4592 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 61,800 tons (1.6% drop) but a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - December's crude steel output is projected to be 3.2857 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.02% but a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - Overall production cuts by steel mills are limited, although year-end maintenance is increasing, potentially leading to more proactive reductions due to loss pressures [2] Inventory - Recent social inventory reduction has been sluggish, with Wuxi and Foshan's 300 series social inventory at 492,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 10,400 tons [2] - As of December 4, stainless steel futures inventory stands at 62,157 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1,316 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market has seen slight price increases, with stable mainstream prices in Wuxi and Foshan, while traders focus on digesting existing inventory [3] - The macroeconomic environment shows weak ADP employment data, increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, alongside a boost in infrastructure investment expectations due to the issuance of additional government bonds [3] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with limited demand from downstream sectors such as home appliances and construction, leading to a general reluctance to stockpile [3] Short-term Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation within the price range of 12,300 to 12,700 yuan/ton, with attention on the execution of production cuts by steel mills and nickel-iron prices [3]