Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2025-12-05 03:01Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market faces significant uncertainty as it transitions into the "post-subsidy era," with many companies expressing concerns about market conditions and competition intensifying [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - By the end of 2025, the anticipated "tail effect" in the automotive market remains uncertain, with many companies unprepared for year-end sales targets [2][5]. - The withdrawal of local replacement subsidies and the adjustment of the new energy vehicle purchase tax from full exemption to a 50% reduction are expected to increase purchase costs for consumers [2][5]. - The overall automotive sales in China from January to October reached 27.687 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.4% [5]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Companies are increasingly adopting "bottom-line" subsidy strategies to boost year-end sales, which may raise sales costs and challenge smaller brands with limited profit margins [3][4]. - The competition is expected to become more transparent and brutal, focusing on product strength, cost control, and user experience as the market moves away from policy-driven growth [5][9]. - The market is predicted to see a significant divide, with leading companies leveraging scale advantages and brand influence, while smaller brands may struggle with cash flow and product iteration [8][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The automotive industry is entering a phase where only a few strong brands are likely to survive, with predictions suggesting that in the future, only five dominant brands will remain in the market [10][11]. - The shift away from policy reliance is expected to allow companies to focus on technological innovation and service upgrades, fostering healthier industry development [10][11].