刘世锦：要更关注中低收入阶层，我国消费市场规模将实现倍增

Core Insights - The "Southern Finance Forum 2025" held on December 5-6 in Guangzhou focuses on the theme "The Power of Consensus - Innovation Surge, China's Asset Revaluation" [1][7] - Liu Shijun, a key speaker, highlighted three major advantages of China's economy: catch-up potential, new technology revolution focusing on digital and green technologies, and the advantage of a super-large market economy [3][9][10] Economic Advantages - The first advantage is the catch-up potential, which refers to opportunities in service sector development driven by consumption structure upgrades, as well as the transformation of traditional manufacturing and agriculture [3][9] - The second advantage is the new technology revolution, emphasizing digital and green technologies [3][9] - The third advantage is the super-large market economy, with a focus on the 9 billion low-income individuals who could transition into the middle-income group, potentially creating a consumption market of 800-900 million [10] Strategic Goals - China needs to implement strategies to become a manufacturing powerhouse, a consumer powerhouse, and a financial powerhouse [10] - The goal for manufacturing is to cultivate large innovative enterprises that can lead globally, while the consumer powerhouse aims to become the largest consumption market worldwide [10] - The financial powerhouse is essential for achieving the first two goals, acting as a bridge to facilitate their realization [10] Financial Development - High-quality development requires a strong capital market and robust currency, with finance serving the real economy by selecting viable projects to enhance resource allocation efficiency [10] - Liu emphasized the importance of a strong currency, citing historical examples of strong currencies like the British pound and the US dollar, which were backed by substantial economic and financial systems [4][11] - Currently, China's GDP accounts for 18% of the global total, with manufacturing at 30%, but the currency's functional roles are below 10% [11] Currency Internationalization - Liu proposed increasing the offshore RMB supply to achieve economies of scale in its international use, addressing the mismatch between China's economic standing and its currency's global role [4][11] - He suggested a significant adjustment in China's foreign trade strategy to balance imports and exports while using RMB for settlements, potentially converting a trade surplus of nearly $1 trillion into over 7 trillion RMB for offshore use [5][12] - The expansion of offshore RMB financial products, including bonds, stocks, and derivatives, is crucial for enhancing liquidity and facilitating the RMB's internationalization [12]