Group 1 - The aluminum sector is performing well, with notable stock increases: Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) up 3.37%, China Aluminum (02600) up 3.05%, Xingfa Aluminum (00098) up 2.29%, and China Hongqiao (01378) up 1.76% [1][2] - Northern regions are experiencing production cuts due to environmental factors, which have a limited contribution to the current oversupply situation. Electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves, and short-term disruptions in winter storage are unlikely [2] - The price of bauxite remains strong, but domestic mines face short-term environmental pressures, while imported supply is increasing, leading to a weakening sentiment regarding prices. Current alumina valuations are low, and bauxite prices have fallen to the marginal highest cost in Guinea, necessitating caution regarding uncertainties in Guinea's bauxite supply [2] Group 2 - Previous insights from Huatai Securities suggest that supply-demand improvements may become the main theme in the metal industry by 2026. The phase of monetary easing and economic recovery is expected to trigger a convergence in the gold-silver ratio, with silver prices potentially rising stronger than gold in 2026 [2] - The supply-demand dynamics for copper and aluminum industries are projected to be in a state of supply shortage by 2026 [2]
铝业股向好 中国铝业(02600)涨逾3% 机构指铝行业2026年供需格局或为供不应求