专家建言明年继续实施“国补” 额度可增至5000亿元

Core Viewpoint - The continuation of the "National Subsidy" policy for consumer goods trade-in is highly anticipated, with suggestions to increase the funding from 300 billion to 500 billion yuan to further stimulate consumption and support economic transformation [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Implementation and Impact - The Chinese government plans to issue 150 billion yuan in special long-term bonds for consumer goods trade-in in 2024, with the subsidy amount increasing to 300 billion yuan in 2025, ensuring balanced fund distribution throughout the year [1]. - The "National Subsidy" policy has significantly benefited consumers and boosted sales of related products, with over 25 trillion yuan in sales generated from trade-ins, impacting more than 360 million people [1]. - The policy has led to substantial trade-in figures, including over 11.2 million cars, 12.8 million home appliances, and 9 million digital products [1]. Group 2: Future Expectations and Recommendations - Experts suggest that the funding for the trade-in policy should be increased to 500 billion yuan in 2026 to further stimulate domestic demand [3]. - There is a recommendation to shift the focus of subsidies from goods to service consumption, and to consider cash subsidies and digital currency as part of the support measures [3][4]. - The current effectiveness of the "National Subsidy" policy is declining due to previous demand being pulled forward and the need for improved supporting policies [3]. Group 3: Economic Context and Consumer Behavior - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.3% year-on-year in the first ten months of this year, indicating a faster growth rate compared to the previous year [5]. - The recent guidelines from the Central Committee emphasize the need to enhance consumer spending and address the challenges of insufficient effective demand [5]. - The ongoing implementation of the "National Subsidy" policy has led to a noticeable increase in the consumption growth rate, although there are concerns about a potential decline in growth rates in the latter half of 2025 due to diminishing policy effects [3][4].