氧化铝主力合约跌破2600关口 创下上市以来新低

Core Viewpoint - The alumina futures market continues to decline, with the main contract price falling below 2600 yuan per ton, marking a new low since its listing and a continuous five-month downtrend [1] Group 1: Market Trends - On December 5, alumina futures prices dropped below the 2600 yuan mark, reaching a new low since listing [1] - The recent auction in Xinjiang for 10,000 tons of spot alumina had a winning bid price of 3005 yuan per ton, while a 5000-ton auction in Yunnan had a winning bid of 2835 yuan per ton [1] - The port inventory of alumina recorded 141,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons or 9.62% from the previous week, with a total reduction of 36,000 tons or 20.34% over the past month [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Guotou Anxin Futures, the operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, with rising industry inventory and exchange warehouse receipts, indicating a persistent oversupply situation [1] - Guangzhou Futures noted that the alumina price has fallen below cash cost support, reflecting market pessimism due to upstream mineral price pressures and high inventory levels [1] - The current cash cost in Jin and Yu regions still allows for profit, leading to continued weak performance in alumina prices as the market seeks a bottom [1] Group 3: Price Forecast - The main contract price for alumina is expected to operate within a reference range of 2550 to 2750 yuan per ton, with limited room for further significant declines [1]