Sugar Prices Pressured by the Outlook for Bigger Supplies from India

Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - Sugar prices are declining due to an anticipated increase in sugar supplies from India, with March NY world sugar 11 down by 0.20% and March London ICE white sugar 5 down by 0.68% [1][2] - On November 30, the Indian Sugar Mill Association reported a 43% year-on-year increase in sugar production to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT) [2] - Brazil's sugar production forecast for 2025/26 has been raised to 45 MMT, contributing to bearish price outlooks [3] Group 2: Production Insights - Brazil's Center-South sugar output increased by 8.7% year-on-year to 983 thousand metric tons in the first half of November, with cumulative output through mid-November rising by 2.1% year-on-year to 39.179 MMT [3] - The International Sugar Organization forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons in 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [6] Group 3: Market Influences - Concerns about tighter global supplies previously led to a rally in sugar prices, with a peak at 6-week highs [4] - India's food ministry's consideration to increase ethanol prices could lead to reduced sugar supplies as mills may divert more cane to ethanol production [4] - India has allowed mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar for the 2025/26 season, which is lower than earlier estimates, indicating a controlled export strategy [5]