Stronger India Sugar Output Undercuts Prices

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently declined due to expectations of increased sugar supplies from India and Brazil, with Indian sugar production rising significantly [2][3] - The International Sugar Organization forecasts a surplus in global sugar production for the 2025-26 marketing year, driven by increased output in several countries [6] Group 1: Indian Sugar Production - Indian sugar production from October to November increased by 43% year-on-year to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT) [2] - As of November 30, 428 sugar mills in India were crushing cane, up from 376 the previous year [2] - India's food ministry is considering raising the price of ethanol for gasoline blending, which could lead to reduced sugar supplies as mills may divert more cane to ethanol production [4] Group 2: Brazilian Sugar Production - Brazil's sugar production estimate for the 2025/26 season was raised to 45 MMT, indicating a bearish outlook for sugar prices [3] - In the first half of November, Brazil's Center-South sugar output rose by 8.7% year-on-year to 983 thousand metric tons [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South through mid-November increased by 2.1% year-on-year to 39.179 MMT [3] Group 3: Global Sugar Market Outlook - The International Sugar Organization forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for the 2025-26 marketing year, reversing a deficit from the previous year [6] - Global sugar production is expected to rise by 3.2% year-on-year to 181.8 million metric tons in 2025-26 [6] - Recent adjustments in export quotas and production estimates reflect ongoing volatility in the sugar market [5][4]