黄金市场静待这件大事！警惕黄金重大破位行情

Core Insights - The article discusses the stability of spot gold prices amid rising U.S. Treasury yields and the anticipation of upcoming PCE inflation data, which is crucial for assessing the Federal Reserve's policy outlook [2][3][4]. Gold Market Analysis - Spot gold closed slightly up by 0.13% at $4208.70 per ounce, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [3][21]. - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by 4 basis points to 4.104%, which, along with a rise in real yields, limited gold's price increase [4][21]. - The dollar index reached a one-month low, making gold more affordable for overseas buyers [5][21]. Employment Data Impact - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 191,000, the lowest in over three years, significantly below economists' expectations of 220,000, reducing concerns about labor market deterioration [6][22]. - Despite the positive employment data, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut remain unchanged [22]. Upcoming Economic Indicators - Investors are closely watching the upcoming U.S. PCE price index report, expected to show a year-over-year increase of 2.8% for September, up from 2.7% previously, and a core PCE increase of 2.9% [10][24]. - The PCE data is considered a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, and any unexpected rise could strengthen the dollar and temporarily suppress gold prices [13][24]. Market Sentiment and Predictions - Traders are betting on a nearly 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [12][24]. - Analysts suggest that gold prices are poised for upward movement, with a potential breakout above $4250 per ounce leading to targets of $4300 and historical highs of $4381 [17][25]. - Conversely, if gold prices fall below $4200 per ounce, support levels are identified at $4124, $4100, and $4059 [19][27].