成本端支撑逻辑弱化 氧化铝主力合约再创新低

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract hitting a new low at 2571.0 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 1.87% [1] Group 2 - The current market for aluminum oxide shows a weak performance, with institutions noting a lack of willingness to reduce production despite the end-of-year negotiations for long-term contracts [2] - Recent low spot transaction prices have negatively impacted market sentiment, while previous expectations for production cuts have not materialized, leading to a resurgence of bearish sentiment due to oversupply [2] - The spot market continues to see declining procurement prices, with low-priced goods entering the market, further pressuring aluminum oxide futures prices [2] - Social inventory of aluminum oxide is on the rise, contributing to the bearish outlook, with no improvement in the overall weak fundamentals expected [2] - Some aluminum oxide plants are undergoing maintenance, resulting in a slight decrease in short-term production; however, the overall production remains high, and there is potential for recovery in the future [2] - Downstream electrolytic aluminum production capacity has slightly increased, leading to a modest rise in aluminum oxide consumption, but the overall increase is limited [2] - The market remains characterized by oversupply, with increasing imports and decreasing exports, making it difficult for prices to recover in the short term [2] - There may be opportunities for arbitrage due to the widening gap between futures and spot prices, suggesting a potential for short-term price rebounds [2]