邦达亚洲:初请失业金表现良好 美元指数小幅反弹

Group 1: US Labor Market Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending November 29 was 191,000, the lowest since September 24, 2022, and below the market expectation of 220,000 [1][6] - The number of continuing jobless claims as of November 22 was 1.939 million, also below the expected 1.961 million [1][6] - The four-week moving average of initial claims was 214,750, indicating stability in the labor market despite fluctuations due to the Thanksgiving holiday [1][6] Group 2: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - The data suggests that the labor market has not shown significant deterioration, but it is unlikely to impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for December [1][6] - According to the CME's FedWatch tool, traders estimate an 87.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month [1][6] Group 3: Eurozone Retail Sales Data - Eurozone retail sales in October increased by 1.5% year-on-year, surpassing the market expectation of 1.3%, indicating some resilience in consumer demand [2][7] - Month-on-month, retail sales remained flat at 0.0%, aligning with market expectations, suggesting a temporary halt in growth momentum [2][7] - The internal growth structure showed divergence, with food, beverage, and tobacco sales rising by 0.3%, while non-food sales (excluding automotive fuel) fell by 0.2% [2][7] Group 4: Economic Outlook for the Eurozone - The retail sales growth has been slowing since reaching a high of 3.8% in June, with the October figure reflecting a slight rebound but still within a downward trend [2][7] - This data may reinforce the European Central Bank's wait-and-see stance, as there are no signs of a consumption collapse or overheating demand that would necessitate further tightening [2][7] Group 5: Currency Market Reactions - The US dollar index experienced slight gains, trading around 99.00, supported by the positive initial jobless claims data and short covering [3][8] - The euro saw a slight decline, trading around 1.1650, influenced by profit-taking and the stronger dollar, despite positive economic data from the Eurozone [4][9] - The British pound also fell, trading around 1.3330, affected by profit-taking and expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England [5][10]