Crude Oil Prices Gain on Dollar Weakness and Geopolitical Risks

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices exhibited mixed performance, influenced by dollar weakness and geopolitical tensions, while inventory reports indicated unexpected increases in stockpiles [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - January WTI crude oil closed up by $0.31 (+0.53%), while January RBOB gasoline closed down by $0.00031 (-0.17%) [1]. - The dollar index (DXY) fell to a 5-week low, providing support for energy prices [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical risks are bolstering crude prices, with threats from Russian President Putin regarding attacks on ships aiding Ukraine [3]. - Recent drone attacks on Russian tankers in the Black Sea have heightened tensions [3]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Russian crude oil product shipments dropped to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in early November, the lowest in over three years, due to ongoing conflicts and targeted attacks on refineries [4]. - New US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies and infrastructure are further constraining Russian oil exports [4]. Group 4: OPEC+ Production Strategy - OPEC+ plans to pause production increases during Q1 of 2026, following a production rise of 137,000 bpd in December [5]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a record global oil surplus of 4.0 million bpd for 2026, prompting OPEC+ to restore 2.2 million bpd of production cuts made in early 2024 [5].