国内炼厂减产预期强 沪锌期货价格有望上探年线

Market Overview - As of December 4, SMM zinc ingot inventory totaled 140,300 tons, a decrease of 7,700 tons from November 27 and a decrease of 4,000 tons from December 1, indicating a reduction in domestic inventory [1] - On December 4, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported zinc registered warrants of 49,250 tons, with canceled warrants at 5,075 tons, remaining unchanged. Total zinc inventory increased by 1,875 tons to 54,325 tons [1] - The top 20 futures companies for Shanghai zinc had a total long position of 138,800 contracts and a short position of 116,500 contracts, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 1.19. The net position increased by 2,417 contracts compared to the previous day [1] Institutional Insights - Zhengxin Futures indicated that under the conditions of supply increase and stable demand, there is a tendency for an oversupply in the zinc market. However, the realization of this oversupply expectation depends on the further transmission from the mining sector to the smelting sector, which requires time for internal adjustments within the industry chain. A key indicator to watch is whether the import mineral smelting profit and the Shanghai-London price ratio can significantly recover. The strategy suggests focusing on short-selling at the upper range of the price interval [2] - Guotou Anxin Futures noted strong expectations for domestic smelter production cuts, while overseas smelter production expectations for Q4 remain moderate. The constraints on zinc ingot supply are strengthening, supporting price increases. Weak U.S. employment data and strong expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December maintain bullish sentiment in the non-ferrous and precious metals sectors, advising against short positions in zinc. The export window for zinc ingots has opened, and Shanghai zinc is expected to test the annual line, with the possibility of breaking through and continuing to rise [3]