1205热点追踪：多晶硅减仓下行，关注仓单数量情况

Core Viewpoint - The market for polysilicon is experiencing fluctuations due to limited warehouse receipts and high positions in December contracts, leading to a significant rebound in the near-month contracts, followed by a decline after the exchange implemented position limits [2][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - At the beginning of the week, the limited number of polysilicon warehouse receipts and high positions in December contracts caused a substantial rebound in the main contract [2][7]. - Following the implementation of position limits by the exchange, market sentiment cooled, resulting in a price drop with a maximum decline of over 2% on Friday [2][7]. - As of yesterday, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased slightly by over 200 contracts to 1560 contracts, still below the December contract's holding of over 2400 contracts, indicating ongoing concerns about insufficient delivery products [2][7]. Group 2: Pricing and Demand - The price of N-type polysilicon has risen to 52,350 yuan/ton, with the minimum delivery product also priced at 52,350 yuan/ton, while the spot price is at a discount of 4,615 yuan/ton to the main contract [2][7]. - The completion of centralized photovoltaic projects and a simultaneous decline in overseas demand have led to a significant reduction in large-format orders on the component side, resulting in continued inventory accumulation in the silicon wafer industry [2][7]. - Weak downstream demand has led to a cooling market with decreased transactions and a recent decline in operating rates, with expectations for further production cuts in the future [2][7]. Group 3: Inventory and Supply - The inventory of polysilicon is struggling to deplete, with recent factory inventories continuing to increase [2][7]. - Overall, the polysilicon market is characterized by a weak supply and demand situation, which is insufficient to support high prices in the market, with price rebounds primarily driven by short-covering expectations [2][7]. - Investors are advised to continuously monitor the changes in positions and warehouse receipts, maintaining a cautious approach [2][7].