德银报告预计明年中国出口将保持强劲

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank's report predicts that China's exports will remain strong in 2026, with a stable or slightly rising RMB exchange rate [1] Economic Growth - Consumption is expected to continue as the main engine of China's economic growth in 2026, with a gradual stabilization in the impact of the "trade-in" subsidies for durable goods [1] - Moderate growth in goods consumption is anticipated, while service consumption is expected to improve gradually under policy support [1] Investment Outlook - Fixed asset investment growth has slowed this year, but major projects under the "14th Five-Year Plan" are set to provide strong support for infrastructure investment [1] - The contribution of investment growth to China's GDP is expected to rebound in 2026 compared to this year [1] Export Performance - China's exports are projected to achieve robust growth in 2026, driven by an increase in market share in non-US markets, particularly in developing markets, and a further easing of Sino-US trade tensions [1] Currency and Internationalization - Strong exports and a high current account surplus are expected to accelerate the internationalization of the RMB, particularly in developing offshore RMB financing markets [1] - With an increased willingness among exporters to convert their earnings, the RMB exchange rate is likely to stabilize and rise, mitigating the volatility caused by depreciation pressures from 2021 to 2024 [1]