张尧浠:静待市场数据逐步指引 金价维持调整待走强预期

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have shown signs of recovery after hitting a low, indicating potential for further strength in the future [1][9]. Price Movement - On December 4, gold opened at $4203.37 per ounce, dipped to a low of $4175.18, and then rebounded to a high of $4219.33 before closing at $4208.64, marking a daily fluctuation of $44.15 and a gain of $5.27, or 0.125% [1][9]. Market Influences - The market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors, with initial jobless claims in the U.S. dropping to 191,000, a three-year low, which pressured gold prices downward. However, expectations of interest rate cuts and buying support are providing a counterbalance as the market awaits key U.S. inflation data [2][11]. Future Outlook - Gold prices are expected to remain volatile until the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision and non-farm payroll data are released. The market anticipates that regardless of whether inflation data shows an increase or decrease, gold will continue to experience fluctuations [12][14]. Fundamental Analysis - There is a strong expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December, but the market is looking for further guidance on future rate cuts. The upcoming release of PPI, non-farm payroll, and CPI data will be crucial in determining gold's direction. The potential for a more dovish Fed chair and ongoing strong demand for gold from global central banks are expected to support a bullish trend for gold over the next year [14][11]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, gold has shown a strong rebound in November, recovering much of the previous month's losses. A breakthrough above the $4400 mark is necessary to open further upward potential, while failure to do so may lead to a sideways adjustment [16]. - Weekly analysis indicates that gold prices have been in a consolidation phase, with higher lows and support from the 10-week moving average. The bullish momentum remains, although it is weakening, suggesting a potential for further upward movement towards historical highs [16]. - Daily charts show gold is currently in a corrective phase below trendline resistance, but remains above several moving averages, indicating a favorable outlook for bullish entries [16]. Trading Strategy - Suggested trading levels include support at $4190 or $4170/55 and resistance at $4235 or $4245 for gold, while silver support is at $56.45 or $55.70 and resistance at $57.65 or $58.00 [18].