Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyin International indicates a significant divergence in the performance of various sub-sectors within the medical industry in 2025, with CXO and innovative drug-related sectors showing substantial growth. The firm remains optimistic about "product-driven" companies in 2026, as the industry trend continues to favor these companies, which are expected to gradually enter a profit cycle. Additionally, opportunities in the medical services sector are highlighted, despite its underwhelming performance in 2025, as the long-term logic of the sector remains intact and resilient [1][2]. Group 1: Sector Performance in 2025 - In 2025, the A-share market performed well, with all 31 Shenwan primary sectors recording positive returns by October 31, 2025. The pharmaceutical and biological sector ranked 10th with a growth rate of 34.95%. Among sub-sectors, CXO had the highest growth at 58.71%, followed by bioproducts at 57.59% and chemical preparations at 52.17%. In contrast, offline pharmacies and blood products had lower growth rates of 7.56% and 0.87%, respectively [1]. - As of October 31, 2025, the overall price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the pharmaceutical and biological sector was 30.82 times, indicating that the industry's valuation remains at a low level compared to 2020. The valuation increase in bioproducts and CXO is positively correlated with performance, while the valuation rise in vaccines and in vitro diagnostics is primarily due to profit declines [1]. Group 2: Outlook for Product-Driven Companies - The report emphasizes that "product-driven" companies are gradually overcoming the impacts of centralized procurement, with increased R&D investments leading to the launch of new products. Policy improvements, such as "anti-involution in centralized procurement" and "encouraging innovation," are guiding the pharmaceutical industry towards an innovation-driven transformation. This trend suggests that the industrial logic for "product-driven" companies will continue to be sustainable [2]. - The innovative drug sector is highlighted as a focal point, with the trend of innovative drug business development (BD) overseas gaining attention in 2025. This trend not only demonstrates the global competitiveness of Chinese innovative drugs but also serves as a crucial pathway for their international expansion. The performance of innovative drug companies and the clinical progress of key products are also noted as important areas to watch [2]. Group 3: Resilience of Medical Services - Despite a lackluster performance in 2025, the medical services sector is showing signs of gradual recovery, particularly in ophthalmology, where diagnostic and surgical volumes indicate a rebound. The long-term resilience of the medical services sector is supported by several factors: the increasing aging population leading to higher disease incidence, the exit of smaller companies due to centralized procurement and cost control, and the presence of unresolved issues in the industry, such as pathological myopia and glaucoma [3]. - The introduction of new technologies and products in the medical services sector presents significant growth opportunities. In 2026, the sector is expected to recover gradually, benefiting from the low base effect observed in 2025 [3].
中银国际：26年建议关注医疗服务板块的机会 看好医药板块创新、出海、消费三个方向
智通财经网·2025-12-05 08:53