Ford Just Reported an Absolute Collapse in Its EV Sales. That Could Be a Key Warning for Tesla Stock.

Core Insights - Tesla's long-term growth is heavily reliant on the success of its Cybercab autonomous robotaxi and Optimus humanoid robot, which investors believe could surpass the revenue generated by its automotive business [1][11] - The company has transformed from a startup to a major player in the automotive industry, reshaping it with high-performance electric vehicles (EVs) under CEO Elon Musk [2] Industry Trends - A significant decline in Ford's EV sales, with a 61% drop, raises concerns about the overall EV market, suggesting that demand may be highly sensitive to incentives like the federal EV tax credit [5][12] - Tesla's momentum has slowed due to increased competition, a cooling EV market, and macroeconomic pressures, leading to a cautious sentiment among investors [6][10] Financial Performance - Tesla's Q3 2025 results showed a 12% year-over-year revenue increase to $28.1 billion, driven by a surge in demand before the expiration of the federal EV tax credit [8][13] - The automotive segment's revenue rose 6% year-over-year to $21.2 billion, while the energy-storage division experienced a remarkable 44% annual revenue increase to $3.4 billion [9] - Despite strong revenue growth, profitability declined, with gross margin falling to 18% and adjusted EPS dropping 31% year-over-year to $0.50, indicating pressure to maintain market share [10][14] Future Outlook - Tesla aims for volume production of the Cybercab robotaxi, Semi truck, and Megapack 3 energy-storage system by 2026, while also ramping up production of the Optimus humanoid robot [11] - Analysts are divided on Tesla's stock, with a consensus "Hold" rating, reflecting uncertainty about its future performance, although some analysts see potential upside if Tesla can execute its ambitious plans [15]