电改步入下半场，机遇与挑战并存

Core Insights - The report from Cinda Securities highlights that the electricity reform is entering its second phase, with spot market expansion and power market entry becoming the main focus [1][3]. Market Performance Review - The utility sector has underperformed compared to the broader market since early 2025, with a notable lag in cumulative gains. However, the gap has narrowed in Q4 2025 due to a market style shift and improving electricity demand [2]. Electricity Fundamentals Review - The implementation of Document No. "136" marks the full market entry of renewable energy generation in China, leading to a surge in new energy projects in the first half of 2025. The results of incremental bidding vary significantly across regions due to differing local policies [3]. - By November 2025, the provincial electricity spot market achieved near-complete coverage, fulfilling the goals set by Document No. "394" [3]. Industry Outlook - The electricity supply-demand balance is shifting towards a more relaxed phase, with significant implications for spot prices and long-term contracts. The current market structure remains dominated by medium- to long-term transactions, but spot price fluctuations are influencing negotiations [4]. - The investment cycle for power generation may have peaked, with potential opportunities arising from asset consolidation as the industry moves towards the "15th Five-Year Plan" [4]. Investment Opportunities by Power Source - In a context of sufficient electricity supply, energy prices are expected to decline, while auxiliary service prices may rise. Coal power remains a stable investment, while nuclear power is anticipated to grow rapidly, albeit facing price pressures [5][6]. - The report suggests that hydropower's marketization is limited, while nuclear power is expected to see significant growth in installed capacity post-2027 [6]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend assets such as hydropower operators and integrated coal power companies, which are expected to provide stable returns. Companies like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power are highlighted as potential investment targets [7].