十万亿级资管巨头发声：看好中国科技股

Core Viewpoint - The global asset management giant Invesco has released its 2026 global investment outlook, indicating that artificial intelligence (AI) is not in a typical bubble state and that emerging markets are expected to outperform developed markets, particularly highlighting the attractiveness of Chinese tech stocks [1][2]. Group 1: AI Market Analysis - Invesco's strategist Zhao Yaoting argues that while there are concerns about an AI bubble, the current market dynamics differ significantly from the late 1990s internet bubble, as AI-related companies' valuations are more based on profits rather than revenue [2][3]. - The contribution of AI to the S&P 500's total returns has been substantial, with AI stocks currently accounting for approximately 28% to 29% of the index [2]. - Zhao notes that some behaviors in the market, particularly in data center investments, may indicate early signs of a bubble, as companies are increasingly using debt or complex equity instruments to fund capital expenditures [2]. Group 2: Emerging Markets Outlook - Emerging markets are projected to outperform the U.S. and developed markets by 2026, with historical patterns showing that emerging markets can experience periods of significant outperformance [4]. - Three key conditions for emerging markets to surpass developed markets include a weaker dollar, interest rate cuts in emerging market countries to release liquidity, and oil prices below $80 per barrel [4]. - Invesco plans to significantly increase its positions in emerging market stocks, believing they have the potential to consistently outperform the broader market based on valuation and other metrics [4]. Group 3: Focus on Chinese Tech Stocks - Invesco is particularly optimistic about the Chinese stock market, especially sectors like semiconductors, humanoid robots, and AI, which are expected to perform well by 2026 [5]. - Foreign investors continue to show strong interest in the Chinese stock market, with demand and attention for its stocks on the rise [5]. - The focus of foreign investment is shifting towards companies related to the global supply chain of U.S. tech giants, as well as the domestic AI industry in China, which is seen as having significant potential in application and implementation [5][6].