离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中升破7.06

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan is experiencing an upward trend against the US dollar, with significant increases noted in both offshore and onshore rates, attributed to a cooling US job market and expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rates - As of December 3, the offshore yuan broke the 7.06 mark against the US dollar, reaching a high of 7.05625, the highest since October 10 of the previous year [1]. - The onshore yuan also approached 7.06, with a peak of 7.0613, marking a similar high since October 10 of the previous year [1]. - The central parity rate of the yuan against the dollar was adjusted up by 40 basis points to 7.0754, the highest since October 15 of the previous year [1]. Group 2: Economic Analysis - The chief economist at Caixin Financial Holdings noted that the cooling US job market has shifted the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook towards a higher probability of cuts, leading to a decline in the US dollar index [1]. - The US dollar index fell below 100 on November 25 and has continued to decline, although fluctuations are expected in December due to upcoming GDP data releases [1]. - The chief economist at Minsheng Bank indicated that while the dollar's movements may cause some disturbances to the yuan's exchange rate, the overall impact is expected to be limited [1]. Group 3: Investment and Market Sentiment - The attractiveness of domestic assets has increased, supporting the yuan's exchange rate, with strong performance in China's A-shares attracting global capital inflows [2]. - The chief economist at Caixin Financial Holdings anticipates a moderate appreciation of the yuan by year-end and into the next year, with "two-way fluctuations" becoming the norm [2]. - The chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng emphasized that China's robust growth policies will provide substantial support for the yuan's exchange rate, projecting strong economic resilience by 2026 [2].