11-12月多晶硅头部大减产！供需关系会否逆转？

Core Viewpoint - The production of polysilicon in China is significantly below expectations for November and December due to production cuts and delays by leading companies, impacting supply dynamics in the market [2][4][9]. Group 1: Production Data - In November, the final production of polysilicon was reported at 114,600 tons, a decrease of 14.48% compared to October [2][9]. - The expected production for December is projected to be 113,500 tons, indicating a continued decline in output [2][9]. - Market expectations for November's polysilicon production were around 120,000 tons, highlighting a significant shortfall [2][9]. Group 2: Reasons for Production Cuts - The primary reason for the lower-than-expected production is the reduction in output by several leading companies, particularly in Inner Mongolia, where two companies accounted for approximately 300,000 tons of capacity shortfall [4][11]. - One company delayed its production ramp-up, while another proactively reduced its load, reflecting industry self-discipline [4][11]. - Additional factors include slow ramp-up of production in regions like Ningxia and reductions by smaller manufacturers due to market conditions and inventory pressures [4][11]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the production cuts, the supply-demand relationship for polysilicon has not reversed, as downstream demand has also led to significant reductions in silicon wafer production [4][11]. - In November, the final production of silicon wafers was 54.37 GW, a decrease of 9.38% month-on-month, with December's expected production at 45.7 GW, reflecting a 15.95% decline [4][11]. Group 4: Price Outlook - The price outlook for polysilicon remains uncertain, with significant upward pressure due to inventory levels and downstream sentiment [6][13]. - However, leading polysilicon producers have shown a clear intent to stabilize the market, which is currently the main factor supporting price stability [6][13].