Toly Bread(SH:603866) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-05 10:13Core Viewpoint - The recent launch of the "Scouring Pad Cake" by Taoli Bread has sparked significant attention on social media, raising concerns about its resemblance to actual cleaning products and potential safety risks for children [2][14]. Financial Performance - Taoli Bread's advertising expenses surged over 40% in the first half of 2025, reaching 42.96 million yuan, while R&D investment decreased by 30.81% year-on-year, accounting for only 0.4% of revenue [8][20]. - The company has faced continuous revenue decline for one and a half years, with net profit shrinking for four and a half years [2][14]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, Taoli Bread reported total revenue of approximately 4.049 billion yuan, down 12.88% year-on-year, and a net profit of about 298 million yuan, down 31.49% year-on-year [21][22]. Market Position and Strategy - Taoli Bread is experiencing a "mid-life crisis" as it faces increasing competition from traditional baking giants and the rise of new consumption models, which have eroded its market share [2][10]. - The company's reliance on a "central factory + wholesale" model, which previously facilitated rapid expansion, is now being challenged by emerging retail channels such as e-commerce and convenience stores [22]. - Analysts suggest that the company's poor performance is largely due to its failure to adapt strategies in a timely manner, focusing too much on marketing rather than product development [22]. Shareholder Activity - The controlling shareholders of Taoli Bread have frequently reduced their holdings, raising concerns in the capital market. As of the end of September 2025, the family collectively held 56.36% of the shares, down from 68.09% at the end of 2018 [9][23]. - The stock price has dropped approximately 78% from its peak of 24.71 yuan per share in 2020, with a current market capitalization of 8.72 billion yuan [21][22].