卫光生物定增扩产背后：浆源、资金与消化三重风险叠加

Core Viewpoint - The company is initiating a non-public offering plan to raise up to 1.5 billion yuan, with 1.2 billion yuan allocated for a smart industrial base project capable of processing 1,200 tons of plasma annually, amidst increasing industry competition and declining performance [1] Group 1: Capacity and Plasma Source Gap - The planned smart factory aims for an annual plasma processing capacity of 1,200 tons, but the company currently has only 9 plasma collection stations, leading to an estimated plasma collection of only 1,180 tons by 2033, resulting in a shortfall of approximately 700 tons post-project completion [2] - The approval process for new plasma collection stations is becoming increasingly stringent, and the company needs to secure approvals for 8 new stations and identify acquisition targets, making plasma source expansion challenging [2] - The total investment for the project is 2.308 billion yuan, with a construction period of 4.5 years, leaving a funding gap of over 1.1 billion yuan even if the 1.2 billion yuan is successfully raised [2] Group 2: Production and Sales Imbalance - In 2024, the company is facing difficulties in capacity digestion, with a 24.72% increase in blood product production but a 5.42% decrease in sales, leading to a more than 70% increase in inventory, reaching 2.2651 million bottles [3] - The blood product industry has entered a competitive phase with large-scale production capabilities, with leading companies like Tian Tan Biological, Shanghai Raist, and Hualan Biological having established or are in the process of building large production bases, often ahead of the company [3] - Since 2025, the industry has seen a decline in net profits for several companies due to falling product prices, indicating increasing pressure from price wars [3] Group 3: Performance Decline and Expansion Timing - The company is experiencing a significant decline in performance, with a 7.4% year-on-year decrease in revenue and a 13.6% drop in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first three quarters of 2025, including a 31.06% year-on-year plunge in net profit for the third quarter [4] - Accounts receivable have increased by 32.1%, and credit impairment losses have surged by 411%, while the expense ratio has risen across the board, further squeezing profit margins [4] - The question of whether large-scale expansion can be supported by sufficient market foundation and operational capability is becoming a focal point for investors amid ongoing performance pressures [4]