京东工业启动全球发售：IPO估值较B轮估值折让近20% 滚动市盈率接近50倍 基石靠老股东撑场

Core Viewpoint - JD Industrial, a subsidiary of JD Group, has officially launched its global offering, marking the expansion of JD's ecosystem. The company plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 11, 2025, with an expected price range of HKD 12.7-15.5 per share, raising approximately HKD 26.8-32.7 billion in the base offering [1][13]. Group 1: IPO Process and Market Expectations - The IPO process for JD Industrial has taken nearly three years, facing challenges such as a valuation discount of nearly 20% compared to its last funding round and a reliance on existing shareholders for cornerstone investments [1][2][13]. - Initial market expectations projected an IPO size of USD 1 billion, but the current offering size is significantly lower, with a base offering expected to raise only about USD 4.2 billion [2][15]. - The company’s valuation has decreased from USD 67 billion during its last funding round to a projected market cap of USD 54 billion at the upper end of the current offering price [3][15]. Group 2: Financial Performance - JD Industrial has shown strong revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.1% from 2022 to 2024, and revenues of CNY 141.35 billion, CNY 173.36 billion, and CNY 203.98 billion for those years, respectively [4][17]. - The company has transitioned from losses to profitability, achieving a net profit of CNY 0.05 billion in 2023 and CNY 7.62 billion in 2024, with continued profitability in the first half of 2025 [4][17]. Group 3: Valuation Concerns - Despite improving profitability, JD Industrial's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is significantly higher than industry averages, with a projected P/E of 60.1x for 2024, compared to around 30x for comparable companies in the MRO sector [5][18]. - The high valuation has raised concerns among investors, limiting enthusiasm for participation in the IPO [5][20]. Group 4: Investor Composition and Market Sentiment - The cornerstone investor base for the IPO is heavily reliant on existing shareholders, with 49.3% of the base offering covered by investments from M&G Investment and CPE, both of which are existing shareholders [7][20]. - The lack of high-quality new investors, such as sovereign wealth funds or large public funds, indicates limited market confidence in the company's high valuation [7][20]. Group 5: Business Structure and Dependency - JD Industrial faces challenges related to its profit margin structure, with low margins on product sales (10%-13%) compared to high margins on service revenues (over 92%), which remain a small portion of total revenue [10][23]. - The company has a significant dependency on JD Group, with a substantial portion of its revenue and procurement linked to the parent company, raising concerns about its operational independence [11][24].