世界黄金协会对2026年金价预测

Group 1 - The World Gold Council predicts three scenarios for gold prices by 2026: optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic [1][2] - In the optimistic scenario, gold prices could rise by 15%-30% if economic growth slows, interest rates decline, or global risks increase [1] - The baseline scenario suggests that gold prices will likely exhibit a range-bound volatility, aligning with macroeconomic consensus expectations [2] Group 2 - In the pessimistic scenario, if U.S. economic growth exceeds expectations due to fiscal stimulus, inflation pressures may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain or even raise interest rates, potentially causing gold prices to decline by 5%-20% [2] - Under the pessimistic outlook, gold ETF holdings may continue to see outflows, although some consumers and long-term investors might buy on dips, providing a buffer [2]