【财经分析】2025高速公路REITs：分化加剧下的机遇博弈与长期展望

Core Viewpoint - The highway REITs market is experiencing a clear polarization in 2025, with some products performing well while others face challenges such as declining traffic and revenue pressure. Despite short-term challenges, experts believe that highway REITs have long-term growth potential due to a large asset base and strong policy support [1]. Market Size and Performance - As of November 2025, highway REITs accounted for approximately one-third of the total REITs issuance in the market, with 10 listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The total issuance scale of 13 highway REITs represents 40% of the public REITs market share, leading in both total scale and average issuance size [2]. - There is a significant performance divergence within the sector, with some products like Huatai Jiangsu Expressway REIT seeing a 37.42% increase, while others like CICC Anhui Expressway REIT experienced a 33.61% decline from January 1 to May 24, 2025 [2]. Revenue and Traffic Trends - Certain products, such as Ping An Ningbo Expressway REIT and Huatai Jiangsu Expressway REIT, reported year-on-year increases in traffic and revenue, with Huatai Jiangsu seeing a 15.02% rise in average daily traffic and a 16.73% increase in toll revenue in April. Conversely, others like E Fund Shen Highway REIT and Zheshang Huhang Expressway REIT saw declines exceeding 10% in both traffic and revenue [3]. Causes of Performance Divergence - The performance divergence is attributed to multiple factors, including competitive road segment diversion due to new routes or upgrades, which directly impact traffic volume. For instance, Zheshang Huhang Expressway REIT faced declines due to nearby road upgrades and toll discounts for trucks [4]. - Seasonal policy impacts, such as toll exemptions for small vehicles during holidays, also affect monthly traffic averages. Additionally, local toll discounts and changes in regional economic activity can indirectly influence project revenues [4]. - Local operational disruptions, such as construction and extreme weather, can temporarily hinder traffic flow, further impacting performance. For example, E Fund Shen Highway REIT experienced reduced traffic due to road closures for construction [5]. New Issuance Debate - There is an ongoing debate regarding whether the issuance pace of new highway REITs should be slowed down, focusing on two main risk points: compliance risks related to asset ownership and the challenges of managing existing debt and asset selection [6]. - Proponents of accelerating issuance emphasize the market value and policy significance, noting that the highway sector has a vast operational asset base, with potential REIT market space estimated between 0.8 to 1.2 trillion yuan. Accelerating issuance could convert fixed assets into liquid funds for new infrastructure projects [7]. Future Development Potential - Experts maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for the future of highway REITs, suggesting a new phase of "quality improvement and expansion." The focus will shift towards more refined asset selection, prioritizing products with stable revenue and growth potential [8]. - Policy enhancements and innovative models are expected to open up growth opportunities, with management potentially optimizing asset returns through extended toll periods [8]. - The highway REITs market is projected to maintain its importance in the public REITs sector, with significant expansion potential anticipated, especially with the expected policy benefits in 2026 [9].