航运价格“淡季不淡”，多家航运公司官宣“淡季涨价 ”

Core Viewpoint - The global shipping freight rates for bulk commodities are experiencing an unusual increase during the off-season, driven by geopolitical conflicts and a surge in shipping demand, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reaching its highest level since December 6, 2023, and showing a cumulative increase of 40.15% over 15 consecutive trading days [1] Group 1: Freight Rate Trends - The rise in dry bulk shipping rates is primarily driven by a surge in demand for Capesize bulk carriers, leading to insufficient shipping capacity and increased freight rates on return routes [1] - In addition to dry bulk rates, shipping costs for crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and iron ore have also shown a seasonal increase [1] - Major shipping companies, including Mediterranean Shipping Company and CMA CGM, have announced freight rate increases on several international routes starting December 1 [1] Group 2: Future Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current price increases are not solely demand-driven but are influenced by geopolitical conflicts, climate factors, and shipping companies' operational strategies, resulting in a "seasonal price increase" phenomenon [2] - For 2026, the shipping industry's investment logic is expected to focus on the supply-demand gap, with low supply growth and potential marginal changes in demand [2] - The tanker segment is anticipated to benefit from a global oil production increase and supply constraints, while the dry bulk segment may see recovery driven by new iron ore production and interest rate cuts [2] - The shipping market in 2026 is expected to continue the trend of supply growth outpacing demand growth, with a focus on the substantive progress of resumption of services [2]