GTC泽汇资本:2026黄金展望 多重不确定中的资产锚

Core Viewpoint - The current environment for gold is driven by moderate growth, accommodative policies, and ongoing geopolitical risks, with investment demand, official reserve purchases, and recycling supply potentially reinforcing this trend [1][8]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold recorded a strong increase in 2025, achieving over 50 historical highs and a total increase of more than 60%, driven by high uncertainty in economic and geopolitical factors, a weaker dollar, and enhanced price momentum [1][9]. - In 2026, gold prices are expected to be influenced by the geopolitical economic framework, with potential for range-bound trading if macro conditions remain stable [1][9]. Group 2: Investment Demand and Official Purchases - Investment institutions and official reserve departments have significantly increased their gold allocations, reflecting a growing market demand for diversification and portfolio stability [1][9]. - The World Gold Council (WGC) model indicates that high-risk environments contribute approximately 12 percentage points to returns, while a weak dollar and declining interest rates contribute around 10 percentage points each [2][9]. Group 3: Scenarios for Gold Price Movement - Scenario 1: In a shallow slip scenario, gold prices may rise by 5% to 15% due to a weaker dollar and lower interest rates, supported by potential increases in official purchases [11]. - Scenario 2: In a doom loop scenario, gold could benefit from a 15% to 30% increase due to heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid global economic downturns [12]. - Scenario 3: In a reflation return scenario, gold prices may decline by 5% to 20% if policies successfully drive growth beyond expectations, leading to higher interest rates and a stronger dollar [12]. Group 4: External Variables Impacting Gold - Official purchases and recycling supply are critical external variables; low official reserves in some economies may increase gold demand if geopolitical tensions rise [13]. - The recycling supply is expected to be relatively weak in 2025, which could support gold prices, but economic downturns may lead to increased secondary supply and price pressure [13]. Group 5: Strategic Role of Gold - In a highly uncertain environment, the performance range of gold may widen, with more complex driving factors. Despite a baseline scenario leaning towards range-bound trading, moderate growth, accommodative policies, and ongoing geopolitical risks provide significant net support for gold [14].