12月5日金市晚评：三大变量“引爆”周五 黄金临技术临界点

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently focused on the upcoming U.S. PCE inflation data, which is crucial for assessing inflation persistence and influencing Federal Reserve policy decisions [1][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. dollar index has retreated to around 98.967, while gold prices are trading at approximately $4218.60 per ounce, reflecting a 0.28% increase [1]. - Gold prices reached a high of $4230.52 and a low of $4194.23 during the trading day [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. September PCE price index is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, up from the previous 2.7%, while the core PCE is anticipated to remain steady at 2.9% [4]. - The market is pricing in a nearly 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The critical resistance zone for gold is identified between $4245 and $4250; a sustained close above this range could signal a bullish trend towards $4277-$4300 [6]. - Support is seen around the $4163-$4164 range, with a potential drop below this level raising concerns about increased selling pressure [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to return to a rate-cutting cycle after the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with adjustments in the current week viewed as potential entry points for investors [5]. - The interplay of Fed rate cut expectations, geopolitical risks, and the PCE data release creates a high potential for market volatility in the near term [7].