世界黄金协会：市场普遍预期黄金涨势将延续 但不确定性仍居高不下

Core Viewpoint - The World Gold Council reported that gold had an outstanding performance in 2025, achieving over 50 historical highs and a cumulative increase of over 60%, driven by geopolitical and economic uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and sustained upward momentum in gold prices [1][4][5]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties have significantly contributed to gold's price increase, with the weakening dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields being key drivers [5][7]. - The demand for gold from investors and central banks has increased as they seek asset diversification and stability amid market volatility [2][5]. - The contribution of geopolitical risks and a weaker dollar accounted for approximately 16 percentage points of gold's price increase, highlighting the impact of political and macroeconomic uncertainties since Trump's second term [7][10]. Group 2: Outlook for 2026 - The outlook for 2026 suggests that while the current trends in the gold market may continue, significant geopolitical factors and macroeconomic data divergence will maintain high levels of uncertainty [1][13]. - If economic growth slows and interest rates decline further, gold may experience moderate price increases; conversely, if geopolitical risks escalate leading to severe economic downturns, gold could see strong price surges [2][13]. - Central bank demand and gold recycling trends will be critical variables affecting market dynamics, with ongoing strong demand from central banks expected to continue supporting gold prices [14][18]. Group 3: Investment Dynamics - The role of gold as a core asset for portfolio diversification and stability remains crucial in a volatile market environment [2][24]. - Despite potential bearish scenarios, the current geopolitical dynamics suggest that investors are likely to maintain a certain level of gold allocation [24]. - The increasing trend of gold-backed loans, particularly in emerging markets like India, may provide additional support for gold prices, although economic slowdowns could lead to increased supply pressures [21][23].