Group 1 - The core view of the article indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates again next week to mitigate the risk of a sharp decline in the labor market [1][4] - A survey of economists shows that the median forecast suggests the Federal Reserve will pause after the next rate cut and resume cuts in March 2026, with two additional cuts of 25 basis points each throughout that year [1][4][7] Group 2 - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next week is estimated at 87.2% according to the CME FedWatch Tool, with a 29.3% chance of cumulative cuts totaling 50 basis points by the end of 2026, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.00%-3.25% [4][5] - The survey conducted among 41 economists from November 28 to December 3 indicates that a significant weakness in the labor market remains a major challenge for policymakers, with only 18% considering inflation a greater risk [7][8] Group 3 - There is a notable division among Federal Reserve policymakers regarding the balance between price stability and full employment, with some expressing concerns over persistent inflation while others see room for further rate cuts to support the labor market [6][9] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to reflect these divisions, with some members likely to vote against the rate cut due to inflation concerns [9][10] Group 4 - The article mentions that under Powell's leadership, the Federal Reserve has increasingly moved towards a decision-making process characterized by majority principles, reflecting a shift from consensus-based decisions [10][13] - Economists speculate that Kevin Hassett may be nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair, but there are doubts about his ability to implement rapid rate cuts as desired by the Trump administration [13][14]
经济学家：美联储下周降息25个基点但投票将现分歧 明年还会降息两次
智通财经网·2025-12-05 13:25