Trump-teased Fed pick Hassett: Fed must cut rates again as shutdown data shock hits

Core Viewpoint - The White House is considering Kevin Hasset as the front runner to replace Jay Powell as the chairman of the Federal Reserve, amid ongoing discussions about interest rate cuts and economic growth strategies [2][3][5]. Economic Outlook - Interest rates are currently up, but there is an 87% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the upcoming December meeting [5]. - The government shutdown has negatively impacted economic data, but a rebound is expected in the first quarter of the following year [7][8]. - GDP growth has been strong, with growth rates in the fours for the last two quarters, indicating a potential for continued economic expansion [7]. Artificial Intelligence Impact - Concerns are emerging about job losses due to AI efficiencies, although new job creation is anticipated [9][10]. - AI is expected to drive a 4% productivity increase next year, allowing firms to meet demand without significantly increasing hiring [12][14]. - Real wage growth is reportedly high, reversing previous declines, and contributing to increased consumer spending power [14][40]. Federal Reserve Strategy - The Federal Reserve is advised to cautiously reduce interest rates to support economic growth, especially in light of productivity gains from AI [7][20]. - Historical parallels are drawn to the 1990s productivity boom, suggesting that the current AI-driven productivity surge could lead to similar economic growth without inflationary pressures [21][22]. Tariff and Trade Policy - The Supreme Court is expected to make a decision regarding President Trump's tariffs, which have generated significant revenue but also raised concerns about potential economic disruptions [26][34]. - Tariff revenues have reached approximately $280 billion annually, with expectations of further increases as domestic production rises [52][54]. Housing and Affordability Initiatives - The administration is focused on making housing more affordable and is working on new initiatives to address affordability challenges faced by families [39][43]. - The introduction of "Trump accounts" for newborns aims to instill financial literacy and provide a financial foundation for future generations [48][50]. Healthcare and Drug Pricing - The administration is advocating for policies to lower prescription drug prices and improve healthcare affordability, building on previous successes in reducing drug costs [60][62].