What are the mortgage rate predictions for the next 5 years?

Core Insights - Mortgage rates have decreased by half a percentage point over the past year, but future trends remain uncertain [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield is a primary factor influencing mortgage interest rates, and a five-year forecast has been developed based on this correlation [2] Treasury Yield Forecast - Economists predict the 10-year Treasury yield will remain around 4.5% for the remainder of 2023, with a gradual decline to 4.1% by 2027 [4][5] - Goldman Sachs analysts concur that the 10-year Treasury yield will stay near 4.1% through 2027 [4] Spread Between Treasury and Mortgage Rates - The spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and 30-year fixed mortgage rates has fluctuated around 2.5 percentage points in recent years, compared to under two percentage points from 2010 to 2020 [6] - Recent data shows a 10-year Treasury yield of 4.09% correlating with a 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6.19%, resulting in a spread of 2.10 percentage points [6] AI Insights on Spread - AI analysis suggests a spread of 2.1 to 2.3 percentage points based on historical data and recent trends [7][8] Five-Year Mortgage Rate Forecast - The five-year mortgage rate forecast indicates rates will likely be around 6.2% to 6.4% by 2027, with no predictions for rates dropping to 3% in the next five years [10][11] - Significant economic disruptions could alter these forecasts, but current estimates suggest rates will not drop significantly [12]