欧洲央行管委Villeroy认为通胀下行风险大于上行风险

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) faces a greater risk of inflation decline than inflation acceleration, and will take action if inflation remains below the 2% target [1][5]. Group 1: Inflation Risks - The ECB's inflation outlook includes significant downward risks, which are at least as notable as upward risks [5][7]. - Upward inflation risks are identified as supply chain fragmentation and a surge in government spending in Germany [4][7]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Stance - The comments from ECB member Francois Villeroy de Galhau are more dovish compared to other members, who oppose further rate cuts as inflation has decreased from 4% to 2% since mid-2024 [3][7]. - Villeroy emphasizes that it is a misunderstanding to think the ECB will tolerate inflation below but close to 2% for an extended period [3][7]. - He states that both upward and downward deviations from the 2% target are undesirable if they persist [3][7]. - The ECB is currently in a "good position," but this position is neither comfortable nor fixed, and future meetings will focus on maintaining sufficient policy flexibility [3][7].