美国9月消费者支出停滞 通胀压力下经济动能显露疲态

Group 1 - Consumer spending in the U.S. showed almost no growth in September, indicating fatigue among consumers under persistent inflation pressure [1] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, suggesting uneven inflation cooling [1] - Retail sales data for Black Friday showed a 4.1% year-over-year increase, driven mainly by high-income consumers, while ordinary consumers remain cautious due to weak job market prospects and high prices [1] Group 2 - Consumer sentiment improved for the first time in five months, with the Michigan University index rising from 51 to 53.3, reflecting optimism about personal financial situations [2] - Concerns about job security are rising, with over half of workers worried about unemployment and many believing it would take four months or longer to find a similar job if laid off [2] - Spending fatigue and a significant decline in goods consumption were noted, with September recording the largest drop in goods spending since May, particularly in automotive, clothing, and footwear [2] Group 3 - Real disposable income has stagnated for the second consecutive month, while nominal wages increased by 0.4%, providing some support for high-income households [3] - The mixed data has intensified the debate within the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for cuts to support the slowing job market [3] - Following the data release, S&P 500 futures and U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise, although the government shutdown has delayed the release of the October consumption report [3]