ZACKS·2025-12-05 16:46Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions have significantly increased diesel prices, leading to higher global refinery margins, with benchmark diesel prices reaching a 16-month high as of November 12, 2025 [1][2] Diesel Price Drivers - Diesel crack spreads surged above $1 per gallon at key hubs from mid-October to mid-November 2025, driven by sanctions on Russian crude oil, refinery outages, and military strikes affecting production and supply [3][4][5] - European Union sanctions targeting Russian crude and refined products have limited Russian diesel flow into global markets, forcing buyers to seek alternative supplies [3] - Significant outages at key refineries, including Kuwait's Al Zour, have compounded global diesel production shortages [4] - Military actions, such as Ukraine's attacks on Russian petroleum infrastructure, have further tightened global diesel supply [4] Impact on Oil Companies - Major oil companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron, Phillips 66, and Marathon Petroleum are expected to benefit from increased diesel prices, as they can purchase crude oil at stable or lower prices and sell refined products at much higher prices [2][6] - Rising refining profits have helped offset weaker earnings from drilling operations for these companies, with global refining margins hitting multi-year highs in November 2025 [6] Energy ETFs Performance - Energy-focused ETFs are likely to see improved profitability due to the enhanced financial health of constituent refining companies, making them attractive to investors [2][7] - Specific ETFs poised to benefit include: - State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) with $27.81 billion AUM, gaining 10.3% year to date [10] - iShares U.S. Energy ETF (IYE) with $1.16 billion in net assets, gaining 9.9% year to date [11] - Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) with $7.1 billion in net assets, gaining 10% year to date [12]