Humana (HUM) Up 0.8% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

Core Viewpoint - Humana reported better-than-expected Q3 earnings driven by premium growth, but faced challenges with elevated expenses and declining medical memberships [2][4]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 2025 were $3.24, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.3%, although it represented a 22.1% decrease year over year [2]. - Adjusted revenues reached $32.65 billion, marking an 11.4% year-over-year increase and surpassing the consensus estimate by 2.1% [2]. - Total operating expenses rose 12.5% year over year to $32.2 billion, exceeding the estimate of $31.2 billion [4]. Operational Update - Premiums increased by 9.9% year over year to $30.7 billion, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.2% [3]. - Services revenues climbed 45.1% year over year to $1.6 billion, exceeding the consensus mark by 15.5% [3]. - Total medical membership decreased by 8.3% year over year to 15 million, falling short of estimates [6]. Segment Performance - The Insurance segment reported adjusted revenues of $31.2 billion, a 9.9% year-over-year increase, driven by improved Medicare premiums and an expanding customer base [5]. - CenterWell revenues grew 16.6% year over year to $5.9 billion, benefiting from higher pharmacy and primary care revenues [7]. Financial Position - As of September 30, 2025, Humana had cash and cash equivalents of $5.4 billion, up from $2.2 billion at the end of 2024 [9]. - Total assets increased to $49.7 billion from $46.5 billion at the end of 2024, while long-term debt rose to $12.6 billion [9]. Future Guidance - Adjusted EPS for 2025 is estimated at around $17.00, indicating a 4.9% increase from 2024, while GAAP EPS is projected to be approximately $12.26, down from earlier estimates [12]. - Total revenues are expected to be at least $128 billion, reflecting an 8.7% increase from 2024 [13]. - Individual Medicare Advantage membership is anticipated to decline by around 425,000 in 2025, with growth expected in other segments [14]. Market Position - Humana's stock has a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating an expectation of in-line returns in the coming months [20]. - The company is part of the Zacks Medical - HMOs industry, which has seen mixed performance compared to peers like Select Medical [21].