Why Is Lucid Group (LCID) Down 21.2% Since Last Earnings Report?

Core Insights - Lucid Group's shares have declined approximately 21.2% since the last earnings report, underperforming the S&P 500 [1] - The upcoming earnings release may determine whether the negative trend continues or if a breakout occurs [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $336.6 million, reflecting a 68% year-over-year increase and exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.38% [10] - Quarterly loss per share was $3.31, which is narrower than the $4.10 loss per share from the previous year but wider than the consensus estimate of $2.32 [10] - Deliveries reached 4,078 vehicles, a 47% increase year-over-year, marking the seventh consecutive quarterly record [10] - Production increased to 3,891 vehicles, up 116% year-over-year, with over 1,000 additional vehicles built for final assembly in Saudi Arabia [10] - GAAP gross margin was approximately -99%, an improvement from -106% in Q3 2024 [10] - Adjusted EBITDA loss was approximately $718 million, compared to a loss of $613 million in Q3 2024 [10] - Free cash flow was negative $955.5 million, wider than the $622.5 million loss in Q3 2024 [10] Costs and Margins - Revenue growth was supported by a favorable mix, but tariffs and input costs negatively impacted margins and Adjusted EBITDA, with tariffs reducing GAAP gross margin by about 13 points [3] - Research and development expenses were $325.3 million, slightly up from $324.3 million in the same quarter of the previous year [4] - Selling, general, and administrative expenses rose to $283 million from $233.5 million year-over-year [4] - Loss from operations totaled $942 million, wider than the $770.5 million loss in the previous year [4] Liquidity - Quarter-end liquidity stood at $4.2 billion, comprising approximately $3.0 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and investments, along with available credit facilities [6] - Following the quarter-end, Lucid and the Public Investment Fund increased the delayed-draw term loan facility to about $2.0 billion, extending the runway into the first half of 2027 [6] Guidance - For 2025, management anticipates year-end production of around 18,000 units, with capital expenditures projected between $1.0 billion and $1.2 billion [7] - Significant delivery growth is expected in Q4 2025, with the Gravity model expected to drive average selling prices and revenue [7] Market Position and Estimates - Since the earnings release, there has been an upward trend in estimates revision, with the consensus estimate shifting by 6.93% [8] - Lucid Group currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating expectations of below-average returns in the coming months [12] Industry Comparison - Rivian Automotive, a competitor in the same industry, reported revenues of $1.56 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 78.3% [13] - Rivian's EPS for the same period was -$0.70, an improvement from -$1.03 a year ago [13] - Rivian is expected to post a loss of $0.68 per share for the current quarter, reflecting a year-over-year change of -30.8% [14]