Why Is Adaptive Biotechnologies Stock Trading Lower After Natera's Over $400 Million Deal?

Core Viewpoint - Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation's stock is experiencing a decline, influenced by Natera Inc.'s acquisition of Foresight Diagnostics, which may heighten competitive pressures in the blood-cancer MRD market [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Adaptive Biotechnologies' stock fell by 12.63% to $15.25 following the news of Natera's acquisition [5]. - The decline in stock price is attributed to fears regarding Natera's entry into the blood-cancer MRD market, which could impact Adaptive's market position [2]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Natera's acquisition of Foresight Diagnostics for $275 million upfront, with potential additional earnouts of up to $175 million, strengthens its position in precision oncology [1]. - Natera is expected to enhance its blood-cancer MRD offerings with Foresight's CLARITY MRD test, increasing competitive pressure on Adaptive [3]. - Although Adaptive has faced competitive noise from Natera's Signatera in DLBCL, it has not yet encountered direct competition from Foresight in clinical applications [3]. Group 3: M&A Implications - The acquisition of Foresight by Natera raises competitive risks for Adaptive, which is currently trading at 10 times expected 2026 MRD sales [4]. - The deal removes a potential buyer from the market, which could affect Adaptive's valuation and acquisition prospects [4].