Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Third-Highest Weekly Close Ever – Momentum Still Missing

Core Viewpoint - Gold remains trapped in a tight range between $4,164 and $4,264, with a bullish bias as long as it holds above the 10-day average at $4,186 [1][5]. Range and Support Structure - The current trading range for gold is between $4,164 and $4,264, with the 10-day average at $4,186 acting as primary near-term support [1]. - A bounce off the 10-day average reinforces its importance, while the 20-day average at $4,144 serves as the next significant support if the 10-day average fails [4]. Confirmation Levels - A daily close above $4,219 would indicate minor strength, but a true breakout requires a settlement above last week's high of $4,245 [2]. Weekly Pattern Evolution - The recent correction ended with a higher swing low at $3,886, followed by a sequence of inside weeks and upside breakouts, indicating relative strength [3]. - This week has shown a narrow range near last week's highs, suggesting a potential for a strong weekly close, possibly the third-highest in history [3]. Outlook - Gold shows potential for higher prices, but momentum is lacking; maintaining the 10-day average and closing above $4,241–$4,245 is crucial for the bullish case [5]. - Failure to achieve these levels could lead to a decline towards the 20-day average, while the larger uptrend remains intact above the 50-day average at $4,076 [5].