氧化铝期货跌破2600元/吨关口！高成本产能面临出清

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market has experienced a significant decline, with the main contract closing at 2590 yuan/ton, marking a new low and falling below the cash production cost line for most domestic producers [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The recent drop in aluminum oxide prices has created a "double kill" scenario, where both futures and spot prices have plummeted, leading to widespread losses for market participants [1]. - The current futures price is below the marginal cash cost range of 2850 to 2950 yuan/ton, with total costs estimated between 3070 and 3170 yuan/ton, indicating that approximately 90% of domestic production is unprofitable [2]. - The inventory situation is critical, particularly in Xinjiang, where the delivery warehouse is nearing full capacity, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances and putting further downward pressure on prices [2]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - The demand for aluminum oxide is constrained by the overall capacity limits in the downstream electrolytic aluminum industry, with only limited incremental demand expected [3]. - The opening of import channels has led to an influx of aluminum oxide, further intensifying domestic supply pressures [3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The decline in prices is prompting concerns about potential production cuts among high-cost aluminum oxide producers, particularly in northern regions [4]. - Falling prices below cash costs are leading to increased likelihood of "passive production cuts" as smelters face profitability issues [5]. - The market is transitioning from a previously tight balance to structural oversupply, driven by both domestic price pressures and uncertainties in overseas markets [6]. - Future challenges include rising production capacity, new investments, and increased imports, which may counteract any potential positive impacts from policy measures aimed at limiting capacity [7].