Sugar Prices Slightly Lower as Supply Concerns Ease

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are experiencing slight declines as they consolidate losses from earlier in the week, primarily due to increased sugar production in India and a bearish outlook for Brazilian sugar output [2][4]. Group 1: Sugar Production and Market Dynamics - India's sugar production from October to November surged by 43% year-on-year to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT), with 428 sugar mills actively crushing cane as of November 30, compared to 376 the previous year [2]. - Brazil's sugar production forecast for the 2025/26 season has been raised to 45 MMT, with a reported 8.7% year-on-year increase in sugar output in the first half of November [4]. - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) projects a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for the 2025-26 marketing year, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [7]. Group 2: Price Influences and Market Sentiment - Recent strength in the Brazilian real has led to short covering in sugar futures, limiting losses in sugar prices despite the bearish production outlook [3]. - Concerns about tighter global sugar supplies had previously driven prices to six-week highs, but recent adjustments in production estimates have shifted market sentiment [5]. - India's food ministry's decision to allow mills to export only 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season, down from earlier estimates, is providing some support to sugar prices [6].