Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. (NTLA): A Bear Case Theory

Core Thesis - Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. is facing a significant credibility and valuation crisis due to major safety concerns in its lead gene-editing programs for hereditary angioedema (HAE) and transthyretin amyloidosis (ATTR) [2][3] Financial Overview - The company reported over $261 million in operating expenses in the first half of 2025, leading to a current cash balance of approximately $500 million, or $4.66 per share based on 107.3 million shares outstanding [2] - Cash per share is projected to fall into the $3 range by year-end, indicating potential financial instability [4] Pipeline and Regulatory Concerns - Both lead candidates have triggered Grade 4 liver events, with the latest case meeting Hy's law criteria, which raises concerns about potential drug-induced liver failure and invites regulatory scrutiny [2][3] - The presence of multiple safe and effective treatments for HAE and ATTR raises questions about the viability of continuing development for NTLA's programs, potentially leading to severe FDA scrutiny [3] Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - Despite the negative developments, NTLA's stock recently surged to the mid-teens, more than doubling from June levels, likely driven by speculative trading rather than fundamentals [3] - The current market pricing is viewed by bears as a "ridiculous opportunity" before reality resets expectations regarding the company's valuation [4] Hedge Fund Interest - As of the end of the second quarter, 33 hedge fund portfolios held NTLA, an increase from 29 in the previous quarter, indicating some level of interest despite the ongoing issues [6]