美股三大股指小幅收涨，券商判断道指跑赢纳指的胜率较高

Group 1 - The US stock indices experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.22% at 47,954.99 points, the S&P 500 up 0.19% at 6,870.4 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.31% at 23,578.13 points [1] - The recent week saw the Dow Jones increase by 0.5%, the S&P 500 by 0.31%, and the Nasdaq by 0.91%, driven by strengthened expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a lower-than-expected rise in the core PCE price index, indicating easing inflationary pressures [1] - The report from Founder Securities highlights that since 2023, AI-driven technology stocks in the US have significantly outperformed benchmarks, reflecting a similar trend in the A-share market, with a hot performance in technology stocks [1] Group 2 - Founder Securities predicts that the Dow Jones, with a relatively low proportion and valuation of technology stocks, has a higher probability of outperforming the Nasdaq during a technology stock headwind cycle [3] - It is anticipated that the earnings growth of small-cap stocks in the US may exceed that of large-cap stocks by 2026, with small-cap valuations currently at low levels [3] - Compared to the 2000 tech bubble, the current valuation levels in the US stock market are still relatively controllable, with earnings remaining robust; a significant burst of the tech stock bubble would largely require Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and tightening financial conditions [3]