Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - Spotify Technology S.A. has transformed into an execution engine, delivering faster, cheaper, and better services than its peers, which has become its competitive moat [2][5] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Spotify reported €4.27 billion in revenue, €582 million in operating income (20% above guidance), and a record €806 million in free cash flow, with 713 million monthly active users (MAUs) [2] - Operating expenses decreased by 2% year-over-year while revenue increased by 12%, demonstrating operational leverage [4] Product Development and Innovation - The company has launched over 30 new features recently, resulting in 17 million net additions and increased user engagement through in-app messaging and multi-format use [3] - AI has evolved to automate app development, significantly reducing costs and enhancing operational efficiency [3][4] Strategic Positioning - Premium subscriptions account for 90% of revenue, allowing the company to generate record free cash flow without relying on advertising growth [5] - New licensing deals focus on flexibility, enabling innovations like broader video rights and integration with Netflix, which strengthen Spotify's platform power [4] Future Outlook - Revenue growth is expected to accelerate to 15% in 2026, with EPS projected to rise by 77% and margins to expand by 200 basis points by 2027 [5] - The stock is currently priced at 48 times forward earnings, indicating high expectations for continued performance [5]